WTI, Brent, OPEC+, and the events that move energy prices
Last reviewed on April 23, 2026
An overview of why disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz can move WTI and Brent so quickly, how analysts estimate the geopolitical risk premium, and the supply routes that exist around the chokepoint.
Read the full piece →US crude production has hovered near 13.6 million barrels per day. A look at the geological, infrastructure, and capital-discipline factors that explain why the price-to-supply response has weakened.
Roughly one-fifth of global petroleum consumption transits the Strait of Hormuz. When tensions rise in the Persian Gulf, oil markets typically price in a geopolitical risk premium across both WTI and Brent.
OPEC and its non-OPEC partners continue to manage supply through coordinated quotas. Compliance varies by member, and overproduction by individual countries has been a recurring topic in recent monthly reports.
The EIA's weekly petroleum status report is a primary mover of WTI prices. It covers commercial crude inventories, refinery utilization, gasoline and distillate stocks, and implied demand.
Long-term oil demand projections from agencies such as the IEA increasingly incorporate electric vehicle adoption rates and renewable power additions, both of which influence the gasoline and industrial segments of demand.
Spring and fall maintenance cycles temporarily reduce refining throughput, which can compress crude demand while widening product crack spreads. The pattern affects WTI's relationship to gasoline and distillate prices.
The spread between WTI and Brent reflects pipeline takeaway from the US Gulf Coast, export capacity, freight rates, and quality differentials between the two benchmarks.
China is the world's largest crude oil importer. Monthly customs data on Chinese imports — and on crude held in floating storage near Chinese ports — is one of the more closely watched demand-side indicators.