WTI, Brent, OPEC+, and the events that move energy prices
Last reviewed on August 6, 2026
Four months after the spike above $100, the war-risk premium is gone: the Strait of Hormuz reopening, another 188,000 bpd from OPEC+, and building Cushing inventories have reset the US oil market.
Read the full piece →Why disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz can move WTI and Brent so quickly, how analysts estimate the geopolitical risk premium, and the supply routes around the chokepoint.
US crude production has hovered near 13.6 million barrels per day. A look at the geological, infrastructure, and capital-discipline factors that explain why the price-to-supply response has weakened.
Seven OPEC+ members are unwinding their April 2023 voluntary cuts step by step, adding 188,000 bpd in August. Compliance varies by member and remains a recurring topic in monthly reports.
The EIA's weekly petroleum status report is a primary mover of WTI prices. It covers commercial crude inventories, refinery utilization, gasoline and distillate stocks, and implied demand.
Long-term oil demand projections from agencies such as the IEA increasingly incorporate electric vehicle adoption rates and renewable power additions, both of which influence the gasoline and industrial segments of demand.
Spring and fall maintenance cycles temporarily reduce refining throughput, which can compress crude demand while widening product crack spreads. The pattern affects WTI's relationship to gasoline and distillate prices.
The spread between WTI and Brent reflects pipeline takeaway from the US Gulf Coast, export capacity, freight rates, and quality differentials between the two benchmarks.
China is the world's largest crude oil importer. Monthly customs data on Chinese imports — and on crude held in floating storage near Chinese ports — is one of the more closely watched demand-side indicators.